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3 Concepts to Texas Holdem Strategy
This texas holdem
strategy article is aimed at new players.
Advanced players, or complete newbies, will
probably not find this article very useful.
Concept #1 – Pot Odds
Long-term profits in texas holdem come from
making bets with a positive expectation. You
only have a positive expectation when your
payoff is higher than your risk. Casinos make
money from negative expectation games like
roulette. The single number bet in roulette pays
off at 35 to 1, but the odds of winning the bet
are 37 to 1. The difference between the 37 and
the 35 is the casino’s profit margin.
You need a basic understanding of how to
calculate pot odds while playing in order to
determine when to play. You should only play a
hand when you have a positive expectation,
otherwise you should fold. Basically you compare
the number of chips in the pot with your chances
of winning the pot when you decide whether or
not to play a hand.
Suppose there is $150 in a pot, and you’re on
the flop with 4 to a flush. An easy way to
approximate the odds of hitting the flush is to
take the number of cards that will make your
hand and multiply that by the number of cards
that are still going to be dealt, and multiply
that by 2. There are 13 cards in a suit and you
have 4 of them. So there are 9 cards left. 9
times 2 more cards times 2% equals 36%, or about
1 in 3. You will win an average of once every
three times and lose the other two times. So the
pot needs to offer you at least 2 to 1 for you
to call a bet. If someone bets $50, you stand to
win $200 on a $50 bet, which gives you
appropriate pot odds to call.
This basic concept is essential to holdem
success. Other concepts to start thinking about
are the odds of your opponent folding if you
raise. This will change the pot odds. A rule of
thumb is that the fewer opponents, the more
likely you’ll be able to take down an
uncontested pot. Another rule of thumb is that
if you have a drawing hand, a big pot, and a
small bet to call, then you should call. If the
pot's small, and the bet’s big, then you should
fold.
Concept #2 – Starting Hand Selection &
Position
Position is critical when deciding what kind of
hands to actually play before the flop. The rule
of thumb is that you play much tighter (have
higher starting hand requirements) in early
position and play looser in late position. Your
advantage in late position is that you can see
what the other players do before you decide what
to do.
This is a simplification, and a lot of people
aren’t going to like the way I do it, but I
divide starting hands into just three groups.
There are definitely sub-divisions and
subteleties between these groups but starting
out, you’re basically looking at just three
different groups: strong hands, drawing hands,
and unplayable hands.
Strong hands are pairs of 10 or higher, plus AK
suited. AA’s and KK’s almost always warrant
raising preflop, unless you’re in early position
and you’re hoping for someone to raise behind
you. AK suited, QQ’s, JJ’s, and 10’s are worth
raising with if no one else has raise, they’re
sometimes worth raising with if someone else has
raised, and they’re almost always worth calling
with.
Drawing hands are hands that need to improve on
the flop to win. Pairs of 99’s or lower and
suited connectors are usually drawing hands, and
so are big-little suited. (Big little suited is
an ace and one smaller card of the same suit,
and it’s a playable hand sometimes because of
its flush potential.) Suited connectors are
adjacent in rank and of the same suit, so they
have the potential to make a flush or a straight
or possibly even a straight flush. And the
smaller pairs go down in value as they get lower
in rank. They’re normally worth calling if no
one’s raised unless you’re in early position,
when you should usually fold them. Sometimes
pairs of 77’s, 88’s, and 99’s are good starting
hands to play strongly with too, especially if
your opponents are very tight and you could win
the pot right there without a showdown.
Concept #3 – What to do on the Flop
“Fit or fold” is the common wisdom on this
subject. You should be in a good position to
decide what to do on the flop. I’ve always
played overpairs and top pairs a little too
strongly, and that works well at a weak table
with calling stations, but you have to be more
cautious with better players. The “average”
winning hand in Texas holdem at a showdown is
two pairs or better.
If your starting cards were a drawing hand, you
need to hit your hand in order to play it. If
you had pocket 66’s, you really need to hit 3 of
a kind to continue playing the hand, otherwise
you should fold. 4 to an open-ended straight is
playable unless there’s a potential flush draw
on the board. 4 to a flush is usually a good
hand to play. But if you’re playing a small pair
and there are overcards on the board, you’re
probably going to have to get away from the
hand. Texas holdem is a game of high cards.
This is a very basic introduction to the things
you should think about in Texas holdem strategy.
There are tremendous subtleties and complexities
beyond this introduction, and entire books are
written on strategies for limit, pot limit, and
no limit Texas holdem. You’re encouraged to
start reading them and think about them while
you play.
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